USDA Soybean and Corn Numbers

USDA released a lot of numbers on July 11th pertaining to farming conditions in the United States. A lot of numbers were thrown out today, but Indiana is now exporting both corn/soybean around the world in bigger numbers compared to ten years ago. USDA projected nice yields this year (Corn 165.3 bpa and Soybeans 45.2 bpa) but in reality this should come with major warning labels. Heavy rains in the cornbelt in June(beginning of pollination) have mostly meant lower yields come harvest.

Soybean production is projected at a record 3,800 million bushels, up 165 million due to increased harvested area. Harvested area, forecast at 84.1 million acres in the June 30 Acreage report, is 3.6 million above the June forecast. The soybean yield is projected at 45.2 bushels per acre, unchanged from last month. Soybean supplies are 180 million bushels above last month’s forecast due to higher beginning stocks and production. Soybean crush is projected at 1,755 million bushels, up 40 million reflecting increased domestic soybean meal disappearance in line with adjustments for 2013/14 and higher

Corn production is projected 75 million bushels lower based on harvested acres from the June 30 Acreage report. The national average corn yield remains projected at a record 165.3 bushels per acre. Favorable early July crop conditions and weather support an outlook for record yields across most of the Corn Belt, however, for much of the crop, the critical pollination period will be during middle and late July. At the projected 13,860 million bushels, this year’s crop remains just 65 million bushels below last year’s record.

Margin Debt, Gold & Commodities

Here some quick hits of economic news that people who follow economics
and investors should like:

Margin debt: The most recent numbers show a decline, which is bearish.

Gold is starting to get noticed again by investors.

The latest data shows that money managers increased net-long positions for a fourth straight week through July 1 and holdings in exchange-traded products are climbing at the fastest pace since 2012. Holdings are rebounding after six straight quarterly declines that began before gold entered a bear market in April 2013.

Several months back due growing money supply from the Federal Reserve creating an artificial boom in stocks I plunged a lot of cash into oil and agriculture. I have not been disappointed. For example,  The Bloomberg Commodity Index, for example, rose 7.1 per cent in the first half of the year.

What is the American Red Cross Hiding?

Charity is wonderful feature of economics and free societies. For years the American Red Cross was seen as an American staple of society relating to charity. Unfortunately for several years now it has turned into a very secretive and untrustworthy organization when it comes to money.

Red Cross started to be questioned around the time frame of the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Just that one event, they raised over $530 Million dollars and put $200 Million of that into “administrative & long-term” functions. Multiple media sources started catching onto the story and they finally started paying out to the victims.

Sharyl Attkisson in her new blog post has raised more questions of what the American Red Cross is doing with Hurricane Sandy funds. The following excerpts were taken through her blog from propublica.org:

Just how badly does the American Red Cross want to keep secret how it raised and spent over $300 million after Hurricane Sandy? The charity has hired a fancy law firm to fight a public request we filed with New York state, arguing that information about its Sandy activities is a “trade secret.” The Red Cross’ “trade secret” argument has persuaded the state to redact some material, though it’s not clear yet how much since the documents haven’t yet been released.

And the main reason why the American Red Cross is claiming “Trade Secrets”….

If those details were disclosed, “the American Red Cross would suffer competitive harm because its competitors would be able to mimic the American Red Cross’s business model for an increased competitive advantage,”

I really cannot say what “trade secret” Red Cross would try to be protecting. Yes, organizations like this can protect logos and other identifying marks but people donating to charity is not a trade secret that has to be kept under wraps. Americans can now just sit on their couch and donate from their cell phones and computer devices if they so choose. The charitable donations were also on top of the $60 Billion the government gave to the hurricane stricken area. That money itself will also have to be probably be investigated.

Sharyl Attkisson herself investigated five major non for profits who received charitable contributions to help the Hati people after their major earthquake. This is what she found:

On May 12, 2010 I reported for CBS News on how 5 major nonprofits, including American Red Cross, had spent funds intended for Haiti earthquake victims four months after the disaster. I noted that enough aid had been raised to give each displaced family a check for $37,000 but thousands of Haitians were still going hungry and living under flimsy shelters. I learned that, to a large degree, the charities can’t tell anyone with specificity where exactly all the money goes. They can give general figures such as, ‘we’ve given out 10,000 meals’ or ‘we’ve distributed 10,000 bottles of water,’ but I wondered why there wasn’t a spreadsheet that explains how many bottles or meals were shipped to which refugee camp and when. It seems pretty basic. After all, somebody has to know. A lot of the funds that donors intended for “emergency relief” were, in fact, still sitting in funds unspent. Some charity officials privately acknowledged that many charities receiving a giant influx of donations in the wake of a giant disaster are ill-equipped to produce long term recovery programs. They sometimes find themselves frantically trying to figure out how to spend all the money in a responsible way that serves the mission.

Myself, this is why I have been strictly going with local charities of affected areas or if a national charity, one that does not hesitate to provide data on their sites.

Illegal Immigrant Children: How Many Will End Up Staying In the U.S.?

The border crisis of minors is not a political issue that will soon go away. Many questions remain open ended about the processing of illegal immigrants from other countries that don’t fall under the title “empathy”. One question that is answered but no one in government leadership positions will truthfully state in the media is how long these children from other countries will be staying.

According to Congressional testimony given this week by Tom Homan, the Executive Associate Director for Enforcement and Removal Operations with ICE, 87% of these individuals are still in the U.S. This answer was in response to how many unaccompanied minors who were apprehended illegally entering the U.S. over the past five years are still in the U.S.

Pork Prices To Rise

Purdue Agricultural economnist Chris Hurt is projecting pork prices to head this summer into the mid $90 per head profit range for producers. Currently they sit around $70 per head. Excluding inflation from money printing, he states that smaller spring farrows from PEDv virus and growing foreign purchase of US pork is driving the pricing. Hurt has suggested farmers has seen this price indicator and plan to expand their pork farrows between 4-6%. His analysis also leads to lower pricing after September of this year after the $90/head profit is reached. Spring of 2015 bigger herd numbers should be seen.

Indiana “Obamacare” Prices To Rise by Double Digits

Prescription drugs, new federal rules and insurer fees will help drive up healthcare premium costs related to Obamacare “Silver Plans” in Indiana by 16%. Bloomberg Business fills a rather short article with lots of good financial nuggets for readers to absorb. Bloomberg broke down the pricing.

How insurers set prices: Cost of claims, benefit changes, rising prices, risk pools, provider networks, geography, reinsurance, taxes and fees, profit and risk load.

With all that calculated, this is what they got for various states:

Image

 

 

 

 

 

 

Indianapolis Star: Gas stations bring crime and unhealthy food

Sunday addition of Indy Star brought about some reveleations that even stunned me. Not so much of its trueness but of its complete idiocy of accusations. According to Indy Star writer Erika Smith, Gas stations bring crime. The plot of the article is some neighbors in the area on the West side are not liking the growing number of gas stations popping up.

For the past five years, these businesses have been moving into this urban core neighborhood and others at an alarming rate: 10 stations within a two-mile radius along the high-traffic corridors of West Washington, West Michigan and West 10th streets

So what are the main reasons to not like gas stations now?

The problem isn’t so much with the gas that the stations sell, but with the crime they attract and the convenience stores that come with them. Full of cheap, unhealthy food and paraphernalia that people use for illegal drugs, the businesses are easy money makers in neighborhoods bereft of grocery stores and wracked by poverty.

She goes on to state as an example Rural/New York Street where there is a gas station. It had 900 calls over 10 years Smith states. I looked at that area for the month of May/June. Closest crime listed there through Spot Crime is three blocks east and IMPD labeled that as “Other”. Smith also goes on to state that those gas stations builders are following those pesky zoning laws:

The hangup is a mix of outdated zoning laws, neighborhoods that for years have been empty of vocal stakeholders, and the profitable business model of opening gas stations and convenience stores in poor urban areas.

Read the rest of the article if you want to see Academy award winning emotions for “Social Justice”. My job on this blog is to use Austrian thinking to rip apart crap published like this. Overall Smith’s biggest problem is the profit side of these gas stations. I can’t explain why she doesn’t like them, she just doesn’t. She will go to great lengths to demonize them to her audience. What Erika Smith doesn’t address from an economic standpoint is the amount of investment from investors or banks that go into building, remodeling or stocking a gas station. It takes great preparation of studying the area to see what needs are to be met. If it’s a poor area, countless economic writers have written about grocery stores leaving those areas because it’s 1) Too Risky & 2) Not profitable. What Erika Smith needs to do is kiss the feet of gas stations that open up in poor areas. Because without them, those in the X number of square block area wouldn’t have access to supplies the gas station has in stock.

I really don’t debate the “unhealthy food” scapegoat anymore. In this day and age, if you haven’t picked up the difference of bad or good food, then there isn’t much hope for you. Smith has stated in other articles throughout the years that some sort of organization through government needs to teach people on how to cook. She basically went full communist mode at that point.  

1952 Presidential Executive Action

Currently I am reading the book, Obama’s Enforcer: Eric Holder’s Justice Department. Pretty good so far but stumbled upon some historical context of regulation and thoughts from Supreme Court Justice Robert Jackson.

The president’s authority to issue executive orders is strongest when he does so with the backing of Congress (category one), more dubious when he issues an order pertaining to a topic on which Congress has not passed a law (category two), and weakest when the executive order is “incompatible with congressional command” (category three).

President Obama recently said he is about to go “on his own” and Congressman Boehner is threatening litigation. Many in media defending Obama by saying Congress won’t work with him. Maybe reading the above should give you pause in wondering why they won’t and if the President needs to take a breather.

 

IPO Market

18 new IPO’s hitting stock market this week. I invest off money supply movement and IPO’s are one of many indicators to watch in regards to movement of money into the system. What is noteworthy of this amount hitting in one week, it has hasn’t happened since the year 2000.

Year to date, 136 IPO’s have come to market which is a 64% increase from the previous year. Money printing is taking hold.