If you’re looking for a reference guide in how to bet….I mean “invest” money on the Super Bowl coming up this Sunday, here’s some data and my pick to maybe help your decision making.
Denver vs Carolina has a lot of moving parts to it when you look at it on paper. Denver’s defense will be tested by Cam Newton running an explosive offense.
Here’s what I look at:
Is Cam to distracted by what “could be” life after a Super Bowl win compared to Peyton Manning giving it everything he has left in the tank as most people believe he will retire.
Does Carolina respect Denver’s defense in not only their front seven, but also the possibility of the deep throw from Cam Newton not being there with Denver’s defensive backs being superb.
Will Peyton Manning throw scared or just wing it since this will be his final game ever as a player?
What do the stats tell me?
By chance you are wanting to put money on the point spread(Carolina is favored by 6), here’s something to ponder: In the last 14 Super Bowls, the under dog is 11-3 against the spread.
Carolina trashed the Arizona Cardinals 49-15 two weeks ago to reach the Super Bowl. That isn’t the best omen and here’s why: Teams who score 40 or more points in an NFL playoff game are 4-23-1 ATS in their following game.
One more potential heart breaker for Carolina: Teams off a win of more than 17 points in the championship round are 1-6 SU/1-5-1 ATS in the Super Bowl.
Last week I told some people if any team starts being blown up in the media for anything other than football, they would be distracted. Cam Newton is distracted. The Broncos have had the nice quiet peace of no distractions and it will pay dividends.
Denver’s defense will do one thing that no one has done all year to Carolina: get Cam Newton frustrated and force him to make bad decisions. Peyton Manning will take every pain shot imaginable before the game and keep the Carolina defense on the field with long drives.
Denver 22 Carolina 17