30% Drop in Soybean & Corn Prices?

Agricultural stocks have taken a beating just recently and one could speculate recent co mments/numbers0 could have this particular commodity market spooked.
The USDA just released numbers for Indiana and nationally on how yields will play out this fall for corn and soybeans. The plants them self are still in pollination stage, but each week gets us closer to the harvest. Here is what the USDA said via Hoosier Ag:

 In Tuesday’s USDA report, corn production is forecast at 14.0 billion bushels. Yields are expected to average 167.4 bushels per acre, up 8.6 bushels from 2013. Soybean production is forecast at a record 3.82 billion bushels, up 16 percent from last year with yields expected to average a record high 45.4 bushels per acre. Indiana corn yields are forecast to be above the national average.

Indiana is forecast to set a new record high corn yield at 179 bpa with an estimated state production of 1.05 billion bushels, the second year in a row the Hoosier state has produced over a billion bushels of corn. Hoosier soybean yields are forecast to equal last year’s level at 51 bpa which will equal 279 million bushels of production. Winter wheat yield is estimated at 73 bushels per acre, even with last year’s record high. Winter wheat production is forecast at 26.3 million bushels.

With that data coming out, Purdue Ag Economist Chris Hurt says profit margins will be squeezed this year at the annual crop report analysis program at the State Fair.

“The revenues will be down sharply this year; crop farmers’ incomes could fall 25-30 percent.” Hurt predicts that corn and soybean prices will continue to move lower as we approach harvest, “This report will not give us new lows; but, if the September and October reports show an increase in corn yields, we could see new low prices.” Hurt said if the National average yield tops 170 bpa, corn prices could dip as low as $3.20 a bushel.

Shuan Casteel, Purdue soybean specialist and Extension agronomist Dr. Bob Nielsen were also in attendence at the State Fair panel. They stated crops were ahead five year averages and that the crops still have 30-45 days of yield potential despite the cool weather.

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